Panel: What will it take to grow the e-bike industry?
Comodule invited 50+ e-bike industry experts to visit our German office, mainly to discuss together how to push the industry further and to celebrate the achievements made so far.
Here’s a summary of an insightful panel discussion with:
Markus Papke, Chief Innovation Officer at Riese & Müller
Miles Mace, Product Owner at YT Industries,
Bob Vroegh, Founder & Head of Design at Vroegh Design
Alex Thusbass, CEO of Hepha
Alex Gmelin, CPO at Comodule (moderator)
Recent studies say that the e-bike industry is supposed to triple its market size by 2030. Will e-bikes and the industry need to change to achieve that? And if so, how?
A different product for different use cases
Bob: “I believe there needs to be some change, especially the quality of the product. We have all these different types of use cases in the industry, all different types of purposes of e-bikes, from cargo to family to sharing. And I think for each use case, there should be a dominant product, a dominant solution.”
Maturing of the market
Markus: “I think we just need to think about replacing the car in certain ways. Talking about digital changes, I think digital should be a core feature. We have been offering a digital e-bike now for like five years, and every year again we talk about doing this as a serial product. But the numbers just aren't there yet. So that either means that we are not good enough, or it's not yet effective enough. I think what we see is that the bicycle industry is at an early stage. For many people it's their first e-bike, maybe if it’s their third bike, then it's clear that it needs to be connected. There are so many use cases that we see. We see a huge potential in cargo bikes, particularly in long-tail bikes. If you ask what needs to change, I think the general setup needs to change. And maybe also the complexity in which we built.”
The “iPhone moment”
Miles: “We haven't had the iPhone moment in the e-bike industry yet. And I feel we're in that same kind of uncanny valley now where telecoms were, there were other phones on the market with a comparable hardware specification like the Nokia N95, but crucially with a hugely different user experience. Today I believe we actually have all the parts. All the IoT suppliers, the drivetrains, and batteries are good enough. We have all the parts, but we haven't yet realized where this is all going.”
Infrastructure development
Miles: “And I feel that the challenges are probably more fundamental. Where I live, it's actually easier for me to own a car for daily transport. Where do I keep my bike? Where do I charge it? But maybe we're able to do some fundamental things as well, about weight, about charging infrastructure, about regulations as well.
Markus: “I disagree, for example here in Nuremberg, there, was a sign “3.8 kilometers to a parking lot”, and it was like 20 minutes. So I would say a bike would be a better option in this case. Where we agree is that we don’t have a full ecosystem yet. I guess in terms of e.g. charging and services, there's still a shortage, and you might not stay mobile if something breaks on your bike.”
Re-defining the e-bike
Alex T: “I would say we don't have an e-bike yet. We have bicycles and motors. Coming back to the mobile phone analogy, the innovation was when telephones were liberated from the cord. It's time for a new bike. It's a fundamental change of thinking about an e-bike as a new category, as a new kind of mobility. Not a bicycle anymore. I think in 10 years the e-bikes at Eurobike won't look like bicycles anymore.
It's also about market penetration. The current crisis is the first to hurt the whole industry, the rest of the crisis, 2001, 2008, Corona, didn't hurt the e-bike brands, because an e-bike is much more than just riding a bike. It's the first time a man and a machine play together. The only ones standing in our way at the moment are ourselves because we still keep on thinking in bicycle ways. We are playing by the rules at the moment. For example Tesla, like it or not, is a cultural change, changing the car industry.”
Bob: “This moment where we are now, is like before the iPhone moment, and I really enjoy it. On the one hand, it creates a lot of work, because everyone wants to try something else. On the other hand, I think that what I said earlier about the use cases, we need to have this process to get to a dominant solution. We need all these inventors to come up with a solution and we need to focus on this evolution.”
Alex T: “I think we don’t need to have the perfect seating for an e-bike, maybe you should think about seat benches. Smaller tires, more compact. You will have light tire solutions. I think the e-bike will lose its two-dimensionality and its single-rider concept. Suddenly three guys are riding a bike. And the next step will be the closed compartments for the driver.”
What are the riders expecting from e-bikes? Who is riding an e-bike and what do you expect with regards to new target groups?
Suitable for all conditions
Markus: “Also, these new target groups are mainly waiting for this iPhone moment. And if I look back at the industry, I would have thought that maybe brands like VanMoof or Cowboy have experimented to become “the iPhone” of e-bikes. And we also have seen the various reasons that they failed, because they had too many own components, were lacking service and reliability. You need a reliable form of transportation in any weather condition. That's also why you might jump in the car because it's freezing. It needs to work, it really needs to blend in perfectly in your everyday life.”
Convenient user experience and support
Markus: “ Also, if you talk about the digital sphere, we always have this discussion with retailers - well, the consumer comes in and he opens like five apps, he has the Abus and the Strava but there's no synchronization yet. It's like you can communicate with your bike or your bicycle for a daily routine with five to six digital interfaces. It's not harmonized. And the other one, in terms of reliability, is the services. I think they want the bike to be a replacement for a car. You need to stay mobile. If you're going to a bicycle shop and they tell you, “Well, I don't service you because you didn't buy a bike here; I don't service you because we don't have the components or time, come back in five months”, then we have an issue. So I think we just need to build products that blend in everyday life and are completely hassle-free. And connectivity can be an enabler. I would never say you need a connected bike. I would say you need a connected bike because it tells you when it needs to be charged, it tells you where it's parked by your wife or your husband, it tells you when it's not locked properly, and then it blends in.”
Component stability
Miles: “I can't really speak to demographics, but I'll speak to the products generally and what really resonated with me in the past was that you see crazy people who were throwing e-bikes away after five years. Because of planned obsolescence, we cannot fix or in many cases replace components like motors or batteries after x years. With frames designed around the motor/battery, the only option is to buy a new bike. Anybody who repairs classic cars can still get ball joints for a 1970s MGB GT. So, I can't really speak to demographics, but my feeling is that particularly the younger generations are more savvy when it comes to waste and reparability, and they see this as a big waste.”
Reliable servicing
Bob: “I think that it's strange that on an car, it has been that for decades, you can see the indicator lights turn on on the dashboard when something breaks. And for e-bikes, there's still no way to say when something is worn down. So, that results in a lot of consumers repairing the bike instead of maintaining it. After five years, the bike is done if you don't maintain it before. We don't have these integrated features that indicate when something is torn down or in need of repair. And then on the other hand, it's also strange that the consumers accept that they need to go to the bike mechanic every six months, leave the bike there for a week, and then get it back. Imagine that you need to do this with a car. It would be a terrible experience. So, I think in terms of quality, we need to improve a lot.”
Comfort
Alex T: “One thing is what to do when it’s raining, or if it’s too hot. The bikes get more and more expensive but the industry still has to find simple ways to solve these issues. And the question is if you want to cycle from A to B only when it's nice weather? Or are you feeling fit? And the big question is, also a complex question, how can we make this product usable for 365 days? Because then you can replace the car. And the cargo bikes, they have extended significantly the range of use.”
A vehicle for short distances
Alex T: “I think for the future, the real game changer for mobility is urbanization. Because for short distances, inter-urban and from outside to city, inside and going around, the need is the highest by far”
Bob: “ I think the big part of the bike industry as we see it now, especially with the delivery and sharing bikes, is that they will do better without pedals. This is strange, because you will not have a bike anymore, but the bike will be way cheaper and easier to maintain. It will be cheaper to use it for five kilometres or to own it. And those pizza delivery guys, they don't want pedals.”
Should e-bike companies work on integrating external components or develop their own solutions?
Collaboration between suppliers
Miles: “I believe that we've reached a peak closed ecosystem (e.g. Shimano/Bosch not sharing CAN protocols) and we're starting to see a retreat back to somewhere in the middle. I believe that we should be able to, as OEMs, pick the components that do the best job, and work seamlessly with other solutions. I was fascinated to watch the development of the Riese & Müller e-bike. This, for me, was a technical tour de force, integrating many different components from as many suppliers. OEMs are still willing to play this game, and willing to risk. But I would like to see more of the suppliers collaborate.”
OEM-s taking control over components
Markus: “For me, the truth is somewhere in between. I think we see that both VanMoof and Cowboy, if you look at their financial numbers, are really struggling. I think that's also what we need to learn from others. I think the OEMs can develop their own parts more. We do some of the components, we do all the accessories, and so on. So, try to do as much as you can by yourself. I also believe that in some areas, also because some brands have really leveraged their ingredient branding, DIY is not tangible. So, if you look at the motor system or the lighting system, we will not start our own lighting company. I think the big question in the future will be do manufacturers in the industry just push back some of the component brands. It came to my mind this comparison of like Michelin Star Chefs. They all buy the same products, but they assemble them into completely new dishes. I think that's also something we need to do better for the consumer.”
Markus: “And what is also interesting, when we at Riese & Müller develop a product, we did not just say we developed a product, we said we also developed a service. We developed a subscription service, and we also developed connectivity. We also developed the app services, and we developed the business models. Swapfiets is a great example. They developed the business model and developed some parts of the product.“
Differentiation
Alex T: “At the moment, we have the same product from different brands. The only different thing is still the price. At the end of the day, there's almost no differentiation. We’re buying from all the same suppliers, and making all the same geometries. And the difference is only in the buying skills. Yes, there needs to be differentiation and a way deeper understanding of what is really needed out there.”
Brand strength
Alex T: “You don't need to invent anything, look at Apple. They make the best products of existing components and they rely on the strength of their brand and design. The industry has to find ways to do so and has to find partners that enable this, like Comodule or other new players in the market. The leaders of the industry have to be strong enough and have to be foresighted enough to see the whole thing and not just try to sell and order the next specifications for the next year. Make a complete product. VanMoof didn't fail because they made a product with their own components. They failed because of other difficulties. And, yes, my take would be the ingredient brands are good, but you are the main brand. We need more strong brands in the bicycle business.”
Bob: “I think that creativity is difficult for a lot of brands. A lot of companies, that are good at marketing, are too small to develop and create their own technical solutions, they need to rely on these external providers and brands to have a certain quality. I believe that now we’re reaching the point where the big brands can rely on their own development processes. Before, the market was just too small.”
Flexibility in choosing components
Bob: I need to say that Swapfiets has done an interesting thing. We have developed a new e-bike with them. But we chose a solution in between. We developed a bike where you can fit several motors and several batteries. And the controller recognizes which battery is mounted to which motor. That's helped them with keeping the bike on the road for a long time and not having a delicate effect with a specific motor set. So they found a hybrid way of doing it.”
The power is in the numbers
Alex T: “There is a certain power within the product. because the product is the beginning and the center of a bigger change. If this product unleashes its potential, things will start to happen on a bigger level. The main power is in the hands of the people on the streets. If more people ride e-bikes, two things will happen: they get visible and the industry grows, and it gets more and more traction. These are the two things - economic power and visibility - that lead to the electors and eventually leads to change in infrastructure.
